Since the post position draw is not likely to affect most people's view of the Preakness (only 10 or so will run), it isn't too early to look at the race and break it down.

The analysis for me starts with Curlin, who figures to be a solid 3rd choice. His finishing a courageous 3rd, with a rough trip, cost me a lot of money and many others who thought he was a "throwout" with no 2 year old foundation and three straight 0's. Well, he ran another 0, with a well documented tough trip. Unfortunately, I think this makes him even more of a throwout. I think Michael D pointed out in an earlier post he now has a similar line to Brother Derek, who really backed up in the Preakness. I think it is even worse, because he only had 3 weeks rest into the DErby, ran the 0, which with the rough trip, probably took more out of him than a normal pairup would. He now comes back on 2 weeks rest, with a lot of bettors out there pointing to the rough trip and thinking he could step up in the Preakness. I think he runs a stinker here. The right move with this horse would have been to lay him until at least the Belmont and probably more likely the Dwyer, leading to the Haskell/Travers route.

Next horse to analyze is Hard Spun. Tough call. If he was my key horse, I would have been disappointed with the Derby. If Street Sense has to go around horses instead of getting the golden trip, Hard Spun may win the race, as SS would likely have lost 2+ lengths of ground on the far turn. I don't care what his closing 6 furlongs were (sorry Miff), the horse ran a big race. Where does he go from here though? He had six weeks into the Derby, now comes back on 2 weeks. If it weren't for the 2 weeks, I would expect a pairup or better. Tough to guess at how much the Derby took out of this horse. For once, I will actually pay attention to the workout and the clockers and see how Hard Spun looks this week. I will also look at the odds. If SS goes off at 4-5 or lower, ala Smarty Jones, that could make Hard Spun a decent play at 4-1 or better. 3-1 or lower is too short for me and I will look elsewhere.

I can't believe I am going to talk about a Pletcher horse in a triple crown race, after emptying my pockets on Any Given saturday, but I think you have to look at King of the Roxy. I think he is the only bettable horse in the race, if you assume that Hard Spun goes off a strong second choice. King of the Roxy ran a negative 1 in the Gulfstream race, then probably backed up some in the Santa Anita Derby. I didn't see that figure yet, but even though he lost ground on both turns, I am sure he didn't run back to his negative 1. He now gets six full weeks into this race. That gives him about 10 or 11 weeks since the negative 1. I know Pletcher is concerned about the distance for this horse, so you can't bet with gusto. This horse also had a nice 2 year old foundation, so he a right to be better this year. Off the 10 or 11 weeks, what chance does he have to run back to the negative 1? I think the negative 1 wins, with a decent trip. I also think this horse goes off at 8-1 or higher, probably double digits.

Street Sense. Well, he is certainly the horse to beat. he paired his negative 2 (or paired his miserable Bluegrasss, if you believe Ragozin, but that is a different story, and not for this post). What does he do now? There was a lot of talk after the race, even on this board about "how do you let him a get a golden trip on the rail". Well, in a 20 horse field, I don't think that riders are "race riding" against a single horse. Street Sense was barely the favorite, almost at 5-1, and I doubt that any jockey was thinking seriously about "not giving Borel the rail". Now, in a 10 horse Preakness, with a "bullseye" on his back, I think it will be a different story. I don't expect the golden trip this time, although he doesn' necessarily need it, to win. He has run 2 great races, both at Churchill Downs and both "poly to dirt", which is almost like "turf to dirt". We know Nafzger was pointing this horse for the Derby, the same way he did with Unbridled. I for one, am completely discounting the chance that Street Sense moves forward. He is not Smarty Jones, who had a bunch of extremely fast races under his belt and then fired another bullet in the Preakness. SS has now had two fast races, both at Churchill, in races where he was specifically "pointed to" by an expert trainer at doing that. I think his absolute best is a pairup, and is much much more likely to back up. Now, he could back up 2 points and still win this race, if HS also backs up and the previously mentioned Curlin and King of the Roxy dont' run their big numbers. But if SS is 4-5 or thereabouts, which I think is likely, I think you have to bet the bounce off the 2 weeks rest. Don't forget, he only had 3 weeks into the Derby, like Curlin', and now has his 3rd race in 5 weeks. A move forward would be herculean and a pairup would be a helluva an achievement. As a gambler, I have to play the odds and bet against either one happening.

I think the play is King of the Roxy, in the race HE WAS POINTED TO, off the 6 weeks rest, running back to his top of 10-11 weeks ago, at close to double digit odds.