Re: What to do with the Preakness (708 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 13, 2007 07:57PM
Logical analysis,
I'll look at Roxy's S.A. Derby again, but my Derby handicapping analysis of Tiago was that Roxy was absolutely gassed in the S.A.Derby. For him to have to run at quicker horses and finish better at a little longer would seem to be a tall order. However Tiago certainly is sitting upon a Derby effort that is buried.
I think Roxy will take money. Its logical. Its a Pletcher shooter, Velasquez probably up. Folks will back him. He may even be third or fourth choice. Regardless of a follow up blood test Pletcher may have him juiced. Once again he would appear to make the exotics interesting by finishing out of them. Personally, I like Chelokee for the role Roxy is suggested for.
Its alwayimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Since the post position draw is not likely to
> affect most people's view of the Preakness (only
> 10 or so will run), it isn't too early to look at
> the race and break it down.
>
> The analysis for me starts with Curlin, who
> figures to be a solid 3rd choice. His finishing a
> courageous 3rd, with a rough trip, cost me a lot
> of money and many others who thought he was a
> "throwout" with no 2 year old foundation and three
> straight 0's. Well, he ran another 0, with a well
> documented tough trip. Unfortunately, I think
> this makes him even more of a throwout. I think
> Michael D pointed out in an earlier post he now
> has a similar line to Brother Derek, who really
> backed up in the Preakness. I think it is even
> worse, because he only had 3 weeks rest into the
> DErby, ran the 0, which with the rough trip,
> probably took more out of him than a normal pairup
> would. He now comes back on 2 weeks rest, with a
> lot of bettors out there pointing to the rough
> trip and thinking he could step up in the
> Preakness. I think he runs a stinker here. The
> right move with this horse would have been to lay
> him until at least the Belmont and probably more
> likely the Dwyer, leading to the Haskell/Travers
> route.
>
> Next horse to analyze is Hard Spun. Tough call.
> If he was my key horse, I would have been
> disappointed with the Derby. If Street Sense has
> to go around horses instead of getting the golden
> trip, Hard Spun may win the race, as SS would
> likely have lost 2+ lengths of ground on the far
> turn. I don't care what his closing 6 furlongs
> were (sorry Miff), the horse ran a big race.
> Where does he go from here though? He had six
> weeks into the Derby, now comes back on 2 weeks.
> If it weren't for the 2 weeks, I would expect a
> pairup or better. Tough to guess at how much the
> Derby took out of this horse. For once, I will
> actually pay attention to the workout and the
> clockers and see how Hard Spun looks this week. I
> will also look at the odds. If SS goes off at 4-5
> or lower, ala Smarty Jones, that could make Hard
> Spun a decent play at 4-1 or better. 3-1 or lower
> is too short for me and I will look elsewhere.
>
> I can't believe I am going to talk about a
> Pletcher horse in a triple crown race, after
> emptying my pockets on Any Given saturday, but I
> think you have to look at King of the Roxy. I
> think he is the only bettable horse in the race,
> if you assume that Hard Spun goes off a strong
> second choice. King of the Roxy ran a negative 1
> in the Gulfstream race, then probably backed up
> some in the Santa Anita Derby. I didn't see that
> figure yet, but even though he lost ground on both
> turns, I am sure he didn't run back to his
> negative 1. He now gets six full weeks into this
> race. That gives him about 10 or 11 weeks since
> the negative 1. I know Pletcher is concerned
> about the distance for this horse, so you can't
> bet with gusto. This horse also had a nice 2 year
> old foundation, so he a right to be better this
> year. Off the 10 or 11 weeks, what chance does he
> have to run back to the negative 1? I think the
> negative 1 wins, with a decent trip. I also think
> this horse goes off at 8-1 or higher, probably
> double digits.
>
> Street Sense. Well, he is certainly the horse to
> beat. he paired his negative 2 (or paired his
> miserable Bluegrasss, if you believe Ragozin, but
> that is a different story, and not for this post).
> What does he do now? There was a lot of talk
> after the race, even on this board about "how do
> you let him a get a golden trip on the rail".
> Well, in a 20 horse field, I don't think that
> riders are "race riding" against a single horse.
> Street Sense was barely the favorite, almost at
> 5-1, and I doubt that any jockey was thinking
> seriously about "not giving Borel the rail". Now,
> in a 10 horse Preakness, with a "bullseye" on his
> back, I think it will be a different story. I
> don't expect the golden trip this time, although
> he doesn' necessarily need it, to win. He has run
> 2 great races, both at Churchill Downs and both
> "poly to dirt", which is almost like "turf to
> dirt". We know Nafzger was pointing this horse
> for the Derby, the same way he did with Unbridled.
> I for one, am completely discounting the chance
> that Street Sense moves forward. He is not Smarty
> Jones, who had a bunch of extremely fast races
> under his belt and then fired another bullet in
> the Preakness. SS has now had two fast races, both
> at Churchill, in races where he was specifically
> "pointed to" by an expert trainer at doing that.
> I think his absolute best is a pairup, and is much
> much more likely to back up. Now, he could back
> up 2 points and still win this race, if HS also
> backs up and the previously mentioned Curlin and
> King of the Roxy dont' run their big numbers. But
> if SS is 4-5 or thereabouts, which I think is
> likely, I think you have to bet the bounce off the
> 2 weeks rest. Don't forget, he only had 3 weeks
> into the Derby, like Curlin', and now has his 3rd
> race in 5 weeks. A move forward would be
> herculean and a pairup would be a helluva an
> achievement. As a gambler, I have to play the
> odds and bet against either one happening.
>
> I think the play is King of the Roxy, in the race
> HE WAS POINTED TO, off the 6 weeks rest, running
> back to his top of 10-11 weeks ago, at close to
> double digit odds.