Re: What to do with the Preakness (640 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: May 13, 2007 08:30PM
I looked at the SA Derby about 3 times today. Roxy was shortening stride. But it was his first time running long (he didn't run enough in the BC for it to count as experience).
HE won't be 3rd choice though Chuckles. SS will be 4-5 or lower, HS and Curlin will be 2nd and 3rd choices. Roxy could be 4th choice, but will still be 8-1 or better.
I wanted to like Chelokee and/or CP West, as my "fresh shooter" off a nice rest, but I can't bet them off their "numbers". Both would have to improve 8 lengths or better to win. They could do that, as 3 year olds, early in their 3 year old season, but I would need significantly better odds to bet on that, than I need for Roxy to pair up his Hutcheson, albeit at a longer distance.
I know "gallop outs" mean next to nothing, but the Tiago gallop out was as impressive as one could be and I think this horse would be a force in the Belmont, if he ran. As such, I hold it LESS against Roxy that he lost to Tiago in the SA Derby by a head, having been at LEAST 3 wide on BOTH turns.