Having studied the "different figure" issue relentlessly (for my own benefit), I can say with a high degree of confidence that most of the major disagreements occur when there was an extreme enough pace in either direction to impact the final time, the weather changed, or significant maintenance was done to the track between races.

A couple of those were true for both the Derby and Blue Grass.

When I am unsure of a figure, I look at the ability of the horses in the race, the race development, bias issues etc.... and form a subjective opinion about the race that often helps me determine which figure is most representative of reality. That kind of thing allows me to cut through the methodology issues that often get debated.

I honestly don't think it's possible to make really fine line pattern reads in circumstances like these. The TG figures line up really well and can be used, but personally I won't be making any significant wagers based on a pattern read of them. To each his own.

To me, it's obvious that SS ran a lot faster in the Derby than the BG. I am less certain how much "better" he ran because the BG was such a boat race the pace didn't allow anyone to run their best possible figure (other than 'maybe' Teufelsburg).

I think HS ran even better in the Derby than it looks because the first 4F of the race were not easy relative to the final time on that track. IMO, he may have even won had he gotten away a little easier or managed a stalking position a few lengths off it without losing much ground.

I don't think KOR or Curlin are of the same quality as the top two at this time and don't plan on trying to beat either favorite unless there's a clear indication that one or both are not acting right coming off their big Derby.

No one is holding a gun to my head telling me I have to make a bet or a pattern read off figures earned in a paceless race and a drying out track with a quick pace.