Re: The Phipps "Gene Pool" (529 Views)
Posted by:
alm (IP Logged)
Date: August 08, 2007 09:26AM
I once read that the elder Ogden never kept a broodmare that didn't at least win a 9 furlong or longer race. He wasn't so much looking for families as for the XX chromes that have been proven (by the Australians) to carry stamina traits.
I appreciate the approach Nafzger takes in prep races. I have cashed more than a few bets on his horses, third off the layoff.
However, SS looked to me to be struggling and far short of his best condition. I don't think Shug's horse is that good, but a lot of average horses have won the Travers in the past. It's sort of a mid-season survival of the fittest race in some years.
As for my picks in the Triple Crown, read my prerace posts on this site. I don't think I wrote about the Derby, I just bet the hell out of SS, having read that they had significantly advanced drug testing on the grounds for the race. That eliminated all of TAP's flock and SA's Curlin.
At Pimlico I reasoned testing would be lax and that Curlin was a great threat.
At Belmont I said the filly and Curlin would run their eyeballs out and that she would have a slight edge.
Since TAP seems to be realizing somewhat inhibited results at Saratoga, I'm guessing they've got him on the radar. AGS won't do it if I'm right.