Re: Marie Laveau (508 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: August 09, 2007 11:22PM
Clown,
No matter how much you write and pontificate, you can't change the facts. Read this next sentence carefully. Any Given Saturday was a faster horse than Hard Spun on the figures for all major figure makers. Thorograph, Beyer and Ragozin. No dispute.
On thorograph, at the weights, Any Given Saturday's best race (the Dwyer) was faster than Curlin's best race (the Preakness). You can ignore the Thorograph figure if you like, but when you are on this board, filling it with rubbish, you should at least occasionally reference the product's figures.
Ok, based on those two facts, plus your "post-race" analysis that neither Hard Spun nor Curlin was likely to run their "A" race, 9-5 on the fastest horse, in a 3 horse race was OK. $24 on the exacta, with Curlin out, was better. Several on this board had "pre-race" thoughts about Curlin and we chased the 11 to 1 on the exacta. I will gladly take 11 to 1 on an outcome that is comprised of the winner being a horse I make more then 50% to win, and one of the only other 2 contenders coming 2nd, especially when the contender who didn't come 2nd was the one I threw out. Forget the triple, 11 to 1 was a nice cold punch.
I didn't expect Curlin's "A" race, but not sure why your POST-RACE analysis didn't expect Hard Spun's "A" race. That horse runs well fresh. His derby was off similar rest and to many, that was his best race.
I don't expect you to understand this, since you don't actually use the thorograph figures, but it is probable that the 2nd place finisher didn't finish far off his best race, figure wise. He was wide on both turns and got beat 4 lengths by a horse he spotted weight to and who had run a negative 3 four weeks ago. We will see when the figures come up again, but he very may well have run around a "0" or "1", which is his best race, for now. And Curlin's figure is also very likely to be similar to every one of his figures EXCEPT the Preakness. The horse has run five races around the "0" range and one race at negative 3. Off the layoff and tough early campaign, expecting a negative 3 was a lot to ask and a "0" wasn't going to beat the Pletcher at the weights and likely inside trip AGS was going to get.
Oh well, I will stop typing now and go talk to the wall in my house for 1/2 hour and see if I get anywhere with that........