Geez - Enough Drug Voodoo Talk (591 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: August 08, 2007 12:19PM
Come on, can't we do anything on this board besides talk about who is allegedly using drugs.
Alm, if you came up with Any Given Saturday based on your drug voodoo logic, congratulations, but you won for the wrong reason. The horse was the best horse on the figures and I am not redboarding. If you look back at the thread "Any Given Saturday Wins on Wednesday", you will see I said he will win the Dwyer, run a negative number doing so, then beat SS and/or Curlin this summer.
The horse ran a negative 3 in the Dwyer, which is NY, so I am assuming you lost a ton of money on him that day, since Pletcher can't win in NY because of the great drug testing we have. AGS had 4+ weeks into the Haskell, off the negative 3. He had the rail and was getting 4 pounds from Curlin. He figured to get a better trip than Curlin, and Curlin only had one figure, his preakness race, which would be competitive with AGS's Dwyer figure. And, even if Curlin ran the negative 3 he ran in the Preakness, AGS's pairing up his negative 3, with the rail, was going to beat him anyway. Not to mention that with all the hard racing Curlin had this year in a very short period of time, he is a great bet against the rest of this year. Many handicappers on this board thought Curlin was a bet against in all three triple crown races because of the lack of foundation and the taxing efforts he had in each race, off tight spacing. However they were wrong (TGJB is in this group of handicappers I believe). However, he may have shown some of that effect in the Haskell, or maybe not. I don't know what the figure is going to be, but he MIGHT have run his secondary top, a "0", which is not a bad race, but AGS may have paired his negative 3, or at least run close to it. Anyway, that is supposition, we will see when Jerry does the figures.
As for avoiding the Travers because of drug testing. Non-sense. I am assuming since you are posting on this board, you have some knowledge of spacing and the impact of big efforts. Look at AGS's sheet. The horse relishes spacing. He probabaly ran a very big effort in the Haskell, which will make 2 top effots in the past 30 days. Why run back in 20 days, which is relatively short rest, against Street Sense, who will have the edge of a race over the track at Saratoga, an extra week of rest, plus having run a relatively slow prep race which won't take much out of him.
If I am training AGS, he runs in the Jockey Club Gold Cup, then the Breeders Cup Classic. If he wins both, he might be 3 year old of the year, plus a shot at horse of the year. As much as I would like to see it, running back in 20 days in the Travers doesn't help him that much and has more downside than upside. (spots too much of an edge to STreet Sense)
Let's talk a little about handicapping on this board. Saratoga is here, the best race meet on the planet (sorry Delmar fans). Lots of competitive races and chances to make money. No need to play conspiracy theory every day on the board.