Speed figures, any type of sheet figure, is an attempt to quantitate, as objectively as possible, the performance of a horse. It's a good thing.

Unfortunately, such analysis leaves out the natural variables of a living animal, only quantitating a particular performance and comparing against previous for that animal and others it runs against, resulting in predictive assumptions.

Those assumptions are frequently not met. To quite a significant statistical degree, as we all know when we lose money at the track. Why? Because horses are living creatures, not mechanical automans. A huge variable is built into the system.

The horse itself is one, the trainer's ability another, nutrition, genetics, mental health - it all contributes, and is unmeasurable by the analyst. And unknowable.

Interpreting patterns certainly reveals trainers that have a propensity for obtaining increased performances from certain animals. Some are so remarkable as to be disbelievable and justifiably questioned.

But that's all you have. A list of "move up" trainers.

How can you with certainty ascertain it's drugs? You can add measurable permanent speed to a horse simply by changing it's work pattern consistently, which changes it's muscular makeup. Should the smarter trainer be punished by the figure makers as a doper?

What cutoff line will the sheet makers use, to separate out, "good trainer", from, "he's using something"?

TGJB wants to narrow the scope, and fine tune impressions, more objectively by triangulation - the horses' quantitated performance, the trainer, the veterinarian.

How sure can one be of the results? Considering the built-in flaws within the system of analysis?