Re: Kryptonite (580 Views)
Posted by:
fkach (IP Logged)
Date: August 29, 2007 10:20AM
>it would be an interesting study to see what the ROI/ win percentage is on Pletcher's 100 plus Saratoga starters in their next race after the Spa closes (or to see if there is any significant TG "correction").<
I don't think ROI is a very good way of measuring TP's performance as a trainer (even though I use ROI very often to help find value).
Astute handicappers notice tainers who horse's tend to develop as they move up the ranks. They also notice those whose horses are more likely to run back to their prior good efforts. Those horses tend to be bet down to reflect those increased favorable probabilities.
TP is unique in that his reputation at Saratoga combined with a slightly less sophisticated group of horse players probably lead him to being very overbet on many occasions at this meet.
I don't really know if it's possible to conclude anything based on this small a sample. When your longer term win percentage is in the 25% range, you are going to have periods where it rises to 35% or falls to 10% due to randomness. I think that's true not only of winning, but figures as well. If your horses typically run a pair X%, bounce Y%, and peak Z%, you are going to have periods where the horses are running much better or worse for no other reason than randomness. If you go into something like that with a pre-conceived notion, you will often come to an incorrect conclusion.
IMO, there are times when you can predict things like this.
If a trainer recently shipped in with a lot of fresh horses he might go on a tear for awhile because they might all peak at the same time.
If an exceptional trainer just got a lot of new stock from inferior connections, he might go on a tear for awhile etc...
If all a trainer's horses have already had a few taxing efforts they might all start to slide at the same time.
If a couple of horses got sick, a bunch of them might miss a few days training and run subpar etc...
Unless someone knows something the rest of us don't, I don't think this is one of those occasions, but I'm not sure what you can read into the results unless you are trying to read something into them. If TP saddled a horse right now that I thought represented good value, I would play it. At most I might insist that it be better than marginal value.