1- I almost never play a horse to run more than 2-3 points better than any established top.

2- The lighter the horse is raced, the bigger the potential jump, as a broad generalization.

3- A horse who has done a lot of developing-- had several previous established tops-- is less likely to make a larger jump, obviously. Which goes to the whole question of good long term lines and good short term lines...

4- A horse who has done little or no developing over an extended period of time is also not a good candidate to jump, especially young horses. This also brings in the question of trainer patterns, which is yet another reason these questions are hard to deal with in the abstract...

5- Patterns being equal, the slower the horse, the bigger the potential jump. This is because there are fewer horses capable of running an 8 than a 10, etc. This also means that stake horses (like the ones we discuss in ROTW) are less likely to make big jumps than claiming and allowance YOUNG horses. This in turn makes stake races easier to play. It also makes the case for using the Red Board Room as a learning resource, not just ROTW.

6- Patterns have changed as the breed has improved and training (and veterinary) methods have changed, and bounces are less acceptable to me than before, especially with young horses. Sometimes they come when you would expect them, and that's okay-- after a big jump, after a jump 0-2, after a jump pair. But if a 3 year old (especially a "good" one) bounces after running only a point or two better than his 2 year old top, I don't like it-- he's much more likely to return to his top than jump. And I especially don't like big bounces on young horses. Obviously, time between races is a factor in all of this, too.

7- I can't see over the top of what's "on my plate", so there is no book forthcoming, at least in the forseeable future. But here's a thought-- there are several serious, sophisticated TG players who post here. Why don't you guys pick and post your own ROTW (or of the day or whatever) analysis right here? Not the sheets, but the discussion of the individual horses in whatever race you guys think lends itself. This would have the advantage of starting discussions about non-stake patterns (we are limited in ROTW options by our arrangements with DRF, TVG etc.), and I'll jump in on occasion.

8- This week's ROTW (Holy Bull) has several horses that lend themselves nicely yo this discussion.



TGJB