Top 3yo stakes routers that pair a new top in general run their top or better about 35 percent of the time next out, run something 1-4 pts off that top about 40 percent of the time and "X" about 25 percent of the time.

I don't have the exact breakout based on how big the initial top was relative to their previous top but roughly speaking based on similar relationships, the percentages probably shift right about 10 percent with more BAD races after paired big new tops (>4 pts) and shift left about 10 percent with more GOOD races after paired small tops (<2pts).

Also, keep in mind lots of factors can impact these general percentages including the trainer (probably a plus for a Lukas horse in a TC race) and suitability to the distance, surface, timing, probable pace scenario, etc.

So a well-bred 3yo triple crown contender heading into a TC race that just paired a small new top for a leading trainer such as Baffert, Frankel or Lukas probably has percentages around 50/40/10 (Top or better / in-between / X) while a suspect-bred 3yo triple crown contender that just paired a big new top for a low-success trainer probably has percentages closer to (20/40/40). Those are probably about the maximum ranges you would use for pair-ups on the TC trail unless you had some unusual mitigating factor.

I hope that helps. A good question. It helps illustrate how an understanding of such basic general percentages can provide handicapping insight.

Chris