I don't have much to add to what Chris said. A few general observations in no particular order:

1) Fast 3YOs are less likely to bounce off big tops than in the past. Even horses off 3+ plus tops are likely to run at or near their top about 40% of the time next out. Generally, if they run a 2nd one near
that jump-up they're likely to back up a few points in the 3rd start. Horses that have made smaller moves are about 60% to repeat or run better next out.

2) Fast established 3YOs are much less likely to jump-up (3+ point move)than you would think. If a horse is 3 or more points slow going in, they are unlikely to make a move big enough to compete, though if that
move comes there's little way to tell based on the past pattern whether it's going to be a 4 point move or a 8 point move. If that type comes in with a good pattern they are also likely to be over bet relative to
their chances.

3) 3YO routers as a group are no more likely to repeat a good effort than 3YO sprinters, despite conventional wisdom to the contrary.

4)These rough guidelines hold for 3YOs racing on dirt. Three year olds running on grass pair-up much more frequently, but jump up less frequently than their dirt counterparts. Turf 3YOs are also unlikely to move any more than a maximum of 4 pts over a current top, no matter how explosive they may look on paper.

Catalin