For me it all has to do with the odds.

Here are my "VERY GENERAL" rules for the "AVERAGE RACE". I obviously make exceptions on occasion to fit the specifics of the race (the edge the horse has, the number of contenders etc..) but not that often.

1. If the favorite looks really solid, has a significant edge and is at short odds, I rarely bet against it unless there is something dramatically wrong on the board elsewhere.

2. I almost never bet a horse, even if I believe it is the most likely winner, unless it is 3-1 or greater and there are no more than 3 contenders. I know that sounds arbitrary, but I find that it is extremely difficult to be exact enough when making odds lines to get much if any value on shorter priced horses. If I have any edge on short priced horses at all, it is so small as to not be significant. All I am doing in spinning money through the windows and reducing my ROIC.

3. If I bet the second most probable winner in a race with 3 contenders, I want in the
5-1 range or greater.

4. If I bet the third most probable winner in a race with 3 contenders, I want in the
12-1 range greater.

Again, if there are fewer contenders or the differences between contenders are very slight, I might make adjustments. These are only guidelines.

The key points are that all my bets are ODDS driven and I avoid all very short priced horses. I think TG plus similar guidelines will get the job done if you are fairly competent.



Post Edited (11-15-03 09:40)