Re: selectivity (559 Views)
Posted by:
Mall (IP Logged)
Date: November 06, 2003 11:16PM
The suggestion to keep careful records is obviously a good one. Reading between the lines, it sounds like you're already more disciplined than a lot of players, and that you're primary focus is win betting. Oftentimes, mine is not, so you might think twice before listening too carefully to my few very general thoughts on the matter. Theoretically, your win bet size should increase as the difference between the percentage chance you think the horse has of winning and the percentage chance the crowd thinks the horse has of winning increases. In other words, bet more on a horse you think is a legitimate 5-1 shot which is going off at 10-1 than if he is going off at 8-1. A related concept which seems almost counterintuitive, & imho is hard to get in the habit of actually doing, is to bet increasingly higher amounts as the odds increase. Last, but not least, your largest plays should be in races where you honestly feel you have some insight which is better, or at least different, than other dopesters.
If memory serves, when this question was raised previously, the thought was that the best way to conduct a meaningful discussion was in the context of a particular betting strategy in a specific race. I played the role of the guinea pig that time, so why don't you pick one out this time around & perhaps we, & a few others, might learn a thing or two.