mall,

From a theoretical perspective I agree with every word you said.

Unfortunately my experience is not consistent with theory. I found that when I started varying bet sizes based on the edge I thought I had all it did was create greater volatility in my results. I also found that I didn't have as much skill at recognizing the exact edge I had as I thought. The "edge" per se leaped off the pages at me after awhile, but I couldn't measure it too well in most instances. My lines are not that accurate. So now I just make flat bets. If you or others have that skill - more power to you!

I think most people play WAAAY too many exotics trying to make a bigger score.

Unless you are hooking a value horse to a value horse you really aren't gaining much and may be losing something because of the higher track take.

For example.

If a horse is 5-1 in the win pool, he will be approximately 5-1 in the exacta pool on top.

There is little or nothing to be gained by putting him over a few contenders "unless" there is one or more very short priced horses you absolutely hate from a value perspective that you can leave off in the place spot.

Similarly, if you play saver tickets, you are probably putting an underlay horse on top of your overlay horse and thus reducing or eliminating any edge you might have.

I can't tell you how much I've blown over the years playing savers and other exotics trying to make a bigger score or at least cash something.

One the flip side. If I think there are 2 overlays in the same race, I will box them in addition to my win bet because the exacta is often a HUUUGE overlay. Similar with daily doubles.



Post Edited (11-15-03 09:44)