Cozzene,

There is no right answer to your question but there is a pretty simple math formula that can help answer your question. This is not original and pretty well documented as the "Kelly" formula that came out of research at Bell Labs.

Formual: Edge/odds

Edge - How much of a an advantage you have. In this case, it is what you think your advantage is based on your assessment of a horses chances of winning vs. the public's chances as reflected on the odds board.

Odds - The odds of the horse that you are wagering on.

I will really simplify this using your example.

Let's say that you think that you had a 50 percent "edge" on both Twin Strips and Porifirio based on the near-post time odds (or the morning line if you are going to bet "blindly").

Then the edge/odds for each is:

Twin Strips: 0.50 / 5 = 0.10
Porifirio: 0.50 / 10 = 0.05

A bigger number is better. In this case, Twin Strips is a much better wager.

The reasoning is that you have the same edge in both cases but you are much more likely to cash on Twin Strips than Porifirio. In essence, you want to demand a bigger edge with longshots and you can get by with a lower edge with favorites.

Of course, this is very simplistic and assumes you have developed an odds line at least for the horses you are thinking about betting on. It also does not factor in your personal tolerance for risk and your desire to either grind out a profit vs. make a big score, etc.

As Mall would say, "it all depends on why you play the game..."

Cheers.

Chris



Post Edited (11-07-03 19:21)