Re: selectivity (701 Views)
Posted by:
brokerstip (IP Logged)
Date: November 07, 2003 05:02PM
Just a few thoughts since this discussion area is of interet to me.
I started tracking my betting by types races, tracks and bets.
Found I was profitable with MCL but not MSW.
Profitable in claiming and allowance sprints but not claiming routes
Profitable in stakes
Modestly profitable on grass.
Then, I tracked my type of bets and found
1) modestly profitable win betting
2) profitable with exactas
3) loser with pick 3
4) breakeven on triples
5) supers were too limited as were pick 6 (although I hit 2 6's my sample is too small)
6) pick 4 was most profitable bet
So,
1) I limit my individual bets to those categories and pass the rest.
2) I focus on vulnerable favorites. As classh notes, if you can't poke a hole or two in the fave, it is often best to go Tittle to Shofner(that's a pass for you youngsters)
I try to focus on the Pick 4's naturally. My main tracks are the S. Cal circuit...will play elsewhere but prefer a track with 'handle' as many Pick 4 pools are just too small (Charlestown, Penn etc.).
I think you could probably track which 'sheet plays' work for you as well. (haven't done this myself as I put a lot of credence into the 'shape' of a race and trainer changes). Pairups on young horses. 3yo's matching 2 yo top first or second time out, circling patterns, condition moves etc.
One might find that he is very adept at spotting a particular pattern that is profitable over time and other patterns that just don't work out at the window.
Other than that, I look forward to exploring these concepts further.
Tip
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