Mark,

You are right Commendable had Gone West as his sire and he won the Belmont, however, he had pretty good bottom-side breeding and got away with a turtle-like pace in the race. Came Home is weakest on the bottom-side and I don't think they will be going 49 or 50 and change for the half in the Derby.

I would say Came Home's pattern is an 0-2-4 rather than an 0-2-X. The difference being that I think his last race was an effort and possibly even a "last gasp."

Maybe in the Derby he could draw an inside post and save ground and either slow down the pace or suddenly show the ability to lay well off a hot pace and maybe even find the closing kick that he lacked in the SA Derby and win it all or at least hit the board. I would say there is about a 3 or 4 percent chance of that happening. At the likely odds that doesn't make him very playable.

Chris