Agree about the early move worry, but you are exactly right about the pace. These top level horses can run 12 second fractions all day, if by "all day" people mean 6F.

A 1:36 mile is a winning time in most G3 races. A 2:00 Derby almost certainly wins, and a 2:24 Belmont equals the record of whats-his-name. In the past 20 years, exactly 2 Belmonts have been won in less than 2:27 (Point Given and last year). Nine times it's been over 2:29 - so if a trainer thinks he can get his horse to go around in :12 2/5 he should do it, since it will win this about half the time.