Re: Bloodhorse Belmont Preview. (785 Views)
Posted by:
bobphilo (IP Logged)
Date: May 29, 2016 08:53AM
When have I ever said that one has to wait until 2050 to get a sufficient sample size? One can do a retrospective study (going into past runnings) where you can use a sufficient number of of races to assure a decent sample size today. The problem with that you have to go back too far and bring in out of date information, so that doesn't work either. I have already stated this.
The only solution is to use all the races run at this or similar distance run this year, there are hundreds.
If you think there is something supernatural about the Preakness that favors longshot closers, that's magical thinking. Closers are favored when there is a hot pace in any race and are disadvantaged when the pace is slow in any race, period. Why would anyone exclude this relevant data? Nothing weird about the Preakness.