Re: Figure Making Final Exams (808 Views)
Posted by: Furious Pete
Date: November 09, 2018 08:04PM
Good job! The numbers seems solid enough IMO.
Okay, I'll make a list and will try to keep an open mind, just because I'm really interested in this. I fear it will be easy to turn those findings into a kind of straw man argument though, given the dead rails, many "off" races in general, and the fact that it's simply much harder to carry ones A-game to the other side of the world. There is of course also a risk for self-fulfilling prophecies implied in this methodology, when it comes down to these things (I know it's not an easy exercise at all to get those relationships right, and overall I'm quite impressed by TG's efforts).
Let's see how this looks (I'll just dig it out for now, as I'm not sure a purely quantitative approach would make one any smarter in this case - I'll leave that for others if they must):
- So Perfect - Lasix - Pairs up her previous best (a 9)
- Queen of Bermuda - No lasix - a slight new top (from 9.5 to 9)
- Soldiers Call - Lasix - Off race, dead rail notion(1w)
- Sergei Prokofiev - Lasix - Off race
- Pocket Dynamo - No lasix - A bit off his best, but decent (11 vs 8.5)
- Well Done Fox - No lasix - no factor
- East - Lasix - Pairs up (from 8.75 to 8.5) (no X but comment says rail 3/8)
- Just Wonderful - Lasix - Pairs up clear top from last time out(lto), a 10, but does it on a dead rail (1w1w)
- The Mackem Bullet - No lasix - slightly off top (10.75 vs 8.5 lto), but she did so going further than ever before, and on a dead rail (1w1w)
- La Pelosa - 2nd time lasix - 5 points off the figure earned at woodbine with 1st lasix lto (12.75 now, 8 then). 12 would be a pair of prev best.
- Lily's Candle - No lasix - no factor
- Line of Duty - Lasix - 2 pt new top (8 vs 10.25). Partly dead rail, but no notion (2w1w)
- Arthur Kitt - Lasix - Pair of top (10), dead rail (1w1w)
- The Black Album - No lasix - Pair of top (11 vs 10.75). Not the smoothest run
- Anthony Van Dyck - Lasix - Off race
- Marie's Diamond - No lasix - Off race
- Lost Treasure - Lasix - 2-3 points off race
- Havana Grey - Lasix - Off race
- Wild Illusion - No lasix - slight new top (from 3.5 to 3) - reluctant in gate and tight in traffic
- Magic Wand - Lasix - pairs up lto (4 then, 4.5 now)
- Athena - Lasix - slight new top (4.75, from 5.25)
- Eziyra - Lasix - pairs up - not the smoothest of runs
- Princess Yaiza - Lasix - off race - dead rail notion (2w1w)
- Expert Eye - Lasix - slight new top (from 3 to 2.25)
- One Master - No lasix - 3 points off clear new top from lto (5.75 now, 2.5 then), but pairs up prev top and did it while running 1w1w on a dead rail
- Clemmie - Lasix - Slight new top (from 5.5 to 4.75)
- Lightning Spear - Lasix - Ran good enough (better than lto, 2 points off top)
- Happily - Lasix - Off race on a dead rail (1w1w)
- Gustav Klimt - Lasix - A tad off (5.25 now, 2.5 as best), off slowly
- Mustashry - Lasix - A bit off (4.5 now, 2 lto), horrible trip (off slow, rushed hard, faltered)
- I can fly - Lasix - 3 points off top (5.75 vs 2.5 lto), broke slowly, couldn't fly
- Enable - Lasix - 3 point new top. Pretty accomplished runner.
- Magical - Lasix - 3 and a half point new top.
- Waldgeist - No lasix - A bit off (4 vs 1.25 lto), step slow in start
- Talismanic - No lasix - Off race on a dead rail (1w1w) (7.5 now, 4.75 lto, 2 is the top (from last BC w/o lasix))
- Hunting Horn - Lasix - No factor
So, what to make of it? For one thing I see a few more excuses for the "no lasix"-horses this year, which adds to my suspicion that these numbers should not be used in a purely quantitative context. It's just randomness.
About the Euro/US relationship it's inconclusive (once more). Was it a tight call to make the turf even faster? From a pure projection point of view I guess it's tight between how it was done, and making it a point faster. A really messy race to make figures for.. I see the trainer and those that really has been following Enable says she was even better last year, that is interesting.. I'm inclined to thinking that it's not as simple as a "euro's"-adjustment, it's more to it than that I think, and often I believe you get it quite right. But it's something about those top, top races and those that compete for the very first places I think, they seem to have a gear available that the figures don't pick up on (or the clock?). If they get to run their race, that is, the very best ones usually does. Uh-oh, the frowned upon class-word has arrived in my thoughts..
It's difficult. It really is. I doubt I will ever be sure about any of this.