You wrote in your analysis that Pleasantly Perfect may have another New Top coming. I know that Mandella has a very good history and the Thorograph Trainer-based Statistics to support his record second off the layoff.

However if I'm reading the study correctly there is only a 12% chance of him running a new top. The percentages of him equalling his new top are matched by the possible "off".

When presented with different conclusions regarding the statistics, which way should the handicapper fall? Is the layoff between the last two starts something that causes The Study to be the lessor of the two indicators?