JB wrote the Rotw this week, but he's up in Saratoga so I'll respond in his stead.

Silver Charm: This pattern study looks at all horses 5 and up in this time period. It does not distinguish by class. Pleasantly Perfect has established himself as one of the best, if not the best, dirt route racer in the world. And what distinguishes top class horses from their lowly brethren is not only their ability to achieve stratopheric peaks, but also their ability to maintain a consistently high performance level overall. Pleasantly Perfect's last effort was an "off" effort as defined by the pattern study parameters, roughly 2 to 3 points, slower than his best efforts. But he still earned a negative 0-3/4, not bad. But the point here is that the X category is overstated. 10% is perhaps more realistic, which means you have to divy up the other 90% among the 3 categories.

Pleasantly Perfect ran a good prep race considering the layoff, especially a layoff preceded by a trip to Dubai, historically, a tough ship.

Mandella is good 2nd off the layoff. Pleasantly Perfect, himself, is at his best 2nd off a layoff. In general I agree with classhandicapper's contention that 4yos are more apt to improve since they are more lightly raced and still maturing. But Pleasantly Perfect is one of those exceptions we've alluded to on many occasions. He got a late start to the races and as a 6yo with 16 races, I would term him as lightly raced. He only ascended to his present performance last October. Pleasant Colony, the sire, gets late developers, so maybe Pleasantly Perfect with the tightener, will put up a new peak figure.

That's rather long winded, but analyze the differences between the statistics. Make sure you know what each is measuring. In this case, frankly, you can downgrade the significance of the pattern studies.

Classhandicapper: Indeed I was surprised that Pleasantly Perfect got beat. But 10 pounds is a lot to concede. Not so this time, and Pleasantly Perfect is far more likely to run an effort than Choctaw Nation. He's already done it and there's little reason to think he won't again. Choctaw has to elevate his game. He may but he may not as well, at least not now.



TGAB