SC,

I had similar feelings about Stella Jayne.

IMO, she was probably an overlay in that race.

I thought SJ was no worse than the 2nd and 3rd choices in that race. Since Ashado's overall record was superior to SJ and the track was wet (which Ashado clearly likes and SJ was slightly suspect on) I thought Ashado deserved to be the favorite. I thought she was overbet though.

I'm not sure what kept me out of the race other than I think there were a lot of conflicting pluses and minuses that made it difficult for me to create an accurate enough odds line.

IMO, when presented with a lot of conflicting stats and data you are better off passing unless the odds are so darn high you "know" you have an overlay even if you don't know how big.



Post Edited (08-24-04 16:13)