JB,

You are right in that the two "complaint" posts I made were criticizing the T-Graph analysis and what turned out to be your own personal analysis was "after the fact".

I will try the Travers as an example of a race that will be difficult to come up with a winner, using only the T-Graph numbers, but additional handicapping angles need to be considered.

Lionheart and Purge are the two "fastest" horses in the race, both on T-Graph and Beyers. But I can't use either horse, when I handicap the race.

I bet Lionheart heavily in the Haskell, based on the fact that he had a trip over the track, he was the speed of the race and having attended the last 20 Haskell's, the contender with the best early speed has won a majority, I thought RHT might have trouble shipping and running on the Monmouth surface. Lionheart went 46.4 to the half, RHT didn't fire at all, and by all rights LH should have drawn off. Instead he held Snookie's Boy off by a length. Lionheart has fast numbers, but he doesn't want 1 1/4 miles on a 'fair' surface. He got 1 1/4 in the Derby in a sea of slop. CD bettors know that when it gets real sloppy, speed holds there. Purge has run two bad races in his life, both times on short rest. He lost by 40 in the Belmont (as a T-Graph selection and my own bet) on 14 days rest and he got bet by about 10 by Smarty on 20 days rest. He comes back on 20 days rest in the Travers. Purge is also suspect to get 1 1/4 miles, based on the dam side breeding. He got 1 1/8 around one turn in the Peter Pan and got 1 1/8 in a perfect setup where Medallist stopped on a dime. This race the pace will be fair (LH has no slow gear), the race will have mid-pack stalkers and a closer, so he will have to be better and WANT the 1 1/4.

Birdstone broke his maiden at Saratoga, running a sharp race. He ran well fresh as a 3-year old, then ran well off a five week layoff between the derby and belmont. He is a smallish horse that runs better rested. He also has tactical speed in that he can be positioned behind LH and Purge, but not 20 lengths off like The Cliff's Edge. Prado has been good in money races there and I trust that Zito is doing what he thinks is best by not giving the horse a race before the Travers. I also think the price will be fair. Many handicappers think the Belmont was a fluke and that Birdstone is not that good. With Purge's Jim Dandy and connections, he will go favored, TCE also takes money all the time and LH will be bet. I think I get 7-2 on Birdstone.

Eddington still hasn't figured it out. Bailey gave up on the horse, I will too. I don't like the way Pat Day is riding at Saratoga and don't think Suave is good enough. The Cliff's Edge might get up for 2nd and I think Sir Shackleton has a shot to improve and win the race. Birdstone over TCE and Sir Shackleton.

But the point was that I think the two "fastest" horses in the race, Purge and Lionheart are not bettable for "other" reasons besides their T-Graph numbers. Neither one finishes in the exacta.