Re: Travers (600 Views)
Date: August 28, 2004 05:05PM
>>"No way seems a little strong; dont you think?"<<<
Remember, I didn't say he can't win. I said there is no way he will like 10F. :-)
When I look at his record I see a horse that had a tough time lasting for 9 furlongs let alone 10F when he got a tough trip. (San Rafael and Blue Grass)
He didn't win at 10F in the Derby despite a loose lead on a track that most people viewed as speed favoring and when many contenders didn't even lift a hoof. Granted that was against Smarty, but it didn't demonstrate he wants it.
He got buried at 1 3/16 in the Preakness on a track that was a bit tiring despite being loose.
He wasn't drawing off from My Snookies Boy despite having everything his own way in his last.
I see no evidence from his record or his pedigree that he wants 10F. Unless Purge collapses, I think it is highly likely Purge will make a serious move in the middle of the race. Even if LH is better than Purge (which I don't believe), I can't see him beating back Purge's challenge and still holding everyone else safe.
As the "favorite", I have to go into a race like this focusing on betting against him. If he beats me, I congratulate him and tear up my tickets.
If on the other hand everyone in the world thought he couldn't get 10F and he want off at 8-1, then I'd start looking for reasons to bet.
He might get loose.
Purge might bounce, not run well and not press him.
The track is carrying speed.
By the way, if "anything", Saratoga IS being kind to speed today.
Post Edited (08-28-04 18:03)
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