TGJB,

I tend to agree with you.

I've been looking forward to this race for awhile because I think Lion Heart is very vulnerable at 10F. IMHO, he also hasn't been nearly as good at Monmouth as some would believe. I don't think My Snookies Boy is anything special. LH was life and death to beat him once and had everything his own way loose on the lead the second time and still didn't draw off or earn a huge figure.

Second, I don't think Purge's preferred distance is likely to be 10F either. I think he's terrific and could easily win, but I'd prefer him in a shorter race.

After those two, you really start fishing among horses that have their own flaws.

Either they haven't been running as fast against weaker competition, are coming off a mini-layoff (Birdstone), or are one run deep closers of the type that are usually underlays (Cliff's Edge).

All that said, I still believe that 10F is not the optimal distance for either LH or Purge and that both would have been highly vulnerable to another legit Grade 1 10F horse that was ready for a top effort and could get decent position early.

It's going to take a price to get me involved, but under no circumstances will it be LH as the favorite. If I am wrong about the distance not being optimal, so be it.



Post Edited (08-27-04 18:43)