TGJB,

>>LH stopped before he went a mile-- I think it was a function of the two big efforts, not the distance. More tomorrow.>>

I understand why you think that. It fits better with your general thinking about the game and your figures for him. I will have to disagree though. Perhaps he didn't run a peak effort, but LH has been having a tough time beating fields of non-entities - once while running with a loose lead on a speed favoring surface at 9 furlongs at Mon. It doesn't get any easier than that.

Today, a quality horse hooked him, put him away, and he spit the bit and tired badly because the distance is out of range and he was against real Grade 1 horses. That's exactly what I said would happen. In fact, perhaps Purge didn't run quite as well as last time, but he too revealed his vulnerability at 10F just like I said he might.

Horses, are not machines. So of course it is impossible to prove either of our views. But not every horse that doesn't run back to his recent figures bounced because of his prior efforts - especially when some people are screaming that this is great horse to bet against for a variety of reasons other than recent effort.

I did not cash the race, but I am certain I played the race right by leaving Lion Heart out of everything and only using the Cliff's Edge in the belly of the exacta.

LH was not running nearly as well as the figures indicated and was facing a distance he did not want and CE has a style that rarely gets it done unless a race collapses. I just had the wrong horse on top in my attempt to cash in on the value presented.



Post Edited (08-28-04 23:06)