Re: Travers (678 Views)
Posted by:
MO (IP Logged)
Date: August 28, 2004 08:48AM
Based on TG figures and patterns, I think Purge is a huge bounce candidate. He bounced real hard after his 1st neg # on short rest, similar pattern applies today. However, if he pairs his last, he wins at a short price (2-1).
Lion Heart is the lone speed, and speed unchallenged invariably wins. His pairing of 2 neg #'s shows that this horse has improved slightly since the spring, and as a 3yo, he should be improving. He'll be favored at about 8-5, thus no betting value on the win end.
Toss the Belmont and Birdstone is a garbage can who would be the slowest entry in the race. At 10f in the Belmont, he wasn't close. This (Travers) is not a 12f race.
Eddington can't get out of his own way. Bailey bails out for good reason.
The Cliffs Edge has paired a secondary top. I don't like the fact that he has not returned to his Blue Grass figure. I forsee another 0 or a slight regression. Could be on the board.
Suave is the 2nd slowest horse in the race.
Sir Shackleton appears to be the up and coming, improving horse. Nice pattern and another slight forward move puts him in the money at a nice price.
Wagering strategy: Bet Sir Shackleton to win and save with an exacta box using Lion Heart.