I'll have to see the post time odds, but I think Sir Shackleton and Suave will probably be the only potentially bettable horses in the race (if you simply must get involved). Perhaps Purge is usable if he goes off the 3rd choice behind Cliff's Edge.

Neither deserves favoritism or even close, but IMO virtually everyone else "with a name" is somewhat suspect because of distance, style, or probability of firing their best shot.

I rarely bet favorites and other short priced horses, but I think it is "borderline insane" to take a "suspect" one. That's the quickest path to losses there is at the track.

IMO, there is no way that LH will like 10F and I doubt is the optimal distance for Purge either.

Maybe they can get it if the pace is not demanding.

Maybe they can get it on a track that favors speed.

Maybe they can get it in a field of horses that contains inferior opponents and others that have to come from the clouds against what could be a slow/average uncompetitive pace.

Maybe they can get it if some opponents are not 100% today.

However, 10F is not optimal.

IMO, if you are taking a short price there shouldn't be any question marks because I think it's virtually impossible to profit over the long haul otherwise.

Birdstone hasn't been out in awhile and as far as I am concerned won the Belmont because it collapsed. I see no reason to "want" to bet him.

Eddington still hasn't show that he belongs at the top of the class and hasn't been inproving in a way that leads me to believe he will get there today.

Cliff's Edge is a deep closer of the type that routinely gets overbet and usually only wins when a race collapses.

Furthermore, this is still 3YO racing. Some late blooming 3YO's improve sharply later in the season.

It would not shock me if either Suave or Sir Shackleton improved sharply. The others were already wound up for the spring classics. If they improve from here, it will probably be the kind of improvement that comes as a result of maturity (slow steady).

IMO, Suave and SS are more likely to explode forward.

Suave has the look of a late bloomer that wants 10F.

SS is lightly raced and has been improving sharply.

You need a "BIG" price and a deep need to have action to take either, but you need to be crazy to take any of the others. :-)



Post Edited (08-28-04 15:21)