Re: Woodbine Mile (606 Views)
Posted by: Bet Twice
Date: September 14, 2019 12:22PM
JB’s mention of this race made me take a look. Agree that the favorite seems vulnerable. My thouhgts:
1. El Tormento (20-1) I won’t try to talk anyone off this horse at those odds, but he’s not for me. I watched the replay of his last, and didn’t seem all that bad – he wasn’t winning regardless of trip. Breeding suggests he’s better suited to sprinting, and pp’s don’t show otherwise. Projecting a 3-4.
2. Lucullan (8-1) Consistent horse but “ouchy”. Expect him to run a 3, and at the weights and possible inside trip makes him a borderline contender with a ~2. Will use underneath.
3. Silent Poet (15-1) I’d expect a bounce, although doesn’t have. Can’t see a forward move. Another whose breeding and record would point to preferring shorter. Projecting a 3-4.
4. Synchrony (6-1) Consistent horse. Projecting a 2, and a use underneath.
5. Get Stormy (8/5) Agree with JB’s implication that she is vulnerable, and at the odds will bet her to bounce. Could obviously win, but will let her beat me. Will use lightly at the back-end of tri’s as a small bounce could still get her a piece, and would hate to have two longshots in the first two slots and miss a payday on her account. Projecting a 3.
6. Awesometank (8-1) First race in North America (and with Lasix) was good, but in line with what I’ve typically seen for the euros (1-2 points better with Lasix and faster pace) so I don’t expect him to bounce, and could actually move forward 2nd time in NA. Should be forwardly placed, so thinking a decent trip. Expecting her to run a 2-3, which, at the weights would be 0-1. My key.
7. Raging Bull (3-1) Very strong contender – Chad, fastest last fig, decent rest, etc… I don’t love the running style and potential for being wide. No reason to think he won’t run a 0 again.
8. American Guru (30-1) Could definitely make a case that he is circling back to his top, which would make him very strong here. Would have liked to have seen a little better in his last two, and don’t love the low % trainer. Big overlay at anything close to those odds. Tough call, but thinking 1.5-3, which would be ~.5-2 at the weights.
9. Made You Look (12-1) CB’s other entry. I don’t expect him to move forward, but not impossible. Thinking a 2 is most likely, which would be ~1 at the weights. Has some tactical speed so may be able to work out a trip.
10. Emmaus (20-1) I don’t see him improving, and would expect a 3.5-4, which at the weights would be ~2.5-3. Tough to take from the far outside.
11. Admiralty Pier (30-1) Another that you could argue is circling back to his top. I don’t love this pattern, especially from the far outside, and the low % trainer doesn’t add confidence. Thinking a pair of his list, or slight bounce, is more likely, so a 3.75-5, which equates to ~2.75-4. Maybe a slight use underneath.
Prior to any scratches, will be constructing bets as follows:
Exactas and Tris:
Heavy on the 6,7 in the top two spots, lighter on the 8 and 9.
Using the 2,4,5,11 in Tri’s only, mostly in the third position.