Woodbine Mile (791 Views)
Posted by: grinder
Date: September 13, 2019 07:16PM
Given the current weather forecast of significant rain tonight in the Toronto region, the turf course will probably have some give to the ground for tomorrow's turf races.
As GS will be carrying co-top weight in the race, even if she pairs her last effort, she could be vulnerable in here. Also, based on her race on a soft-turf course at Belmont last year, she may not like a less than firm course.
The dynamics of the one-turn mile may help RB, as he is slightly faster than GS at the weights and will only lose ground on one turn. However, he is a stone-cold closer, and his running style often results in less than ideal trips.
After looking at the race, I think that there are a few live long shots that could get a big piece of the race.
El Tormenta (20-1) - He has essentially paired the same number in his last four races at Woodbine. However, in his last race, he was bottled up inside on the backstretch and turn and then blocked and shut-off when he was making a move in the stretch. He made a belated close when clear late and galloped out well. Therefore, his last TG number is better than it appears. He should also save some ground in this race, as he has drawn inside and loves this course. I also like the rider switch to Da Silva.
Awesometank (8-1) Based on her assigned weight of 116 - her last TG number makes her almost as fast as the M/L favourites. However, she is coming off a top and could react, but is usable at double digit odds. She ran very game in the Beverly D and held on for a clear second to Sistercharlie. I also think she will like the turn-back to a flat mile and softer ground should not be a problem.
Admiralty Pier (30-1)- Drawn on the extreme outside, but could be cycling back to a big TG number he ran at Tampa in February.