Re: Woodbine Mile (437 Views)
Posted by: Socalman3
Date: September 14, 2019 01:08PM
Agree with all that this is a chewy complex race.
Looking at the figures, these horses are generally pretty close and figure to run close to each other. For the record, I am playing the pick 4 and hitting the ALL button on the race.
El Tormenta -- Not for me today. Could he be a part of the Super, yes, will i have him if he wins in the pick 4, yes. BUT, this horse just seems like he cannot break through his usual 3.5. Plus, he often takes up and it would seem to me he is likely to take up again today. He wasnt anything special as a 3yo and it seems like his 4yo improvement is already there and if anything he is at risk of tailing off.
Lucullan -- very hard sheet to read, but lean away. A lot of slow pace races make reading the sheet harder. This does not figure to be a slow pace race. hard to say if he is ouchy, or a horse that had one campaign, took a break and this is third off the layoff. Don't love him, but don't hate him.
Silent Poet-- like this guy a lot. Take careful note of when he first time got lasix. Since he has gotten lasix, he is undefeated on the Woodbine turf including a G2 at 7 furlongs which i like as a prep for a one turn mile. Third back from a layoff, last out was first time breaking through 3yo top. The only issue is spacing. I would be in love with this horse if the race were 2 weeks from now. Is the 3 weeks too soon, could be, but not automatically so. If this horse is 15-1, he is a phenomenal price.
Synchrony -- throw out at your peril. Reliable as clockwork. Will run his 2 and has a jockey that will get every ounce out of it. Prep race was perfect. Only problem is that this race is a G1 and there are horses in here that can easily pop figures better than a 2 and if not squandered, this guy can't beat them. Cannot see him missing out on the super, though.
Got Stormy -- a lot written about her being vulnerable. I will join that choir, but explain why. It is not running two consecutive 1s in a short period of time. It is because both those races have unique features that inappropriate flatter her apparent ease and run away with them. Both had phenomenal pace set ups for her. The first was a restricted filly and mare race that is an incredibly weak race and winning it by 4 is not anything special. The 4stardave was obviosuly a tough race, but it was crazy pace wise and she was the beneficiary. I am suggesting that she is just not going to get the conditions she got when she ran the only figures that make her competitive. Today she needs to try a new configuration for the first time and doesnt figure to have the easy set up. High weight. Obviously she could surprise, but not with my money...she is just another horse in this one.
Awesometank really hard sheet to read. One american figure first lasix with weird pace situation. She could bounce. If she pairs, with the light weight, she is very competitive. Am not tossing her, but would not key her.
Raging Bullwish this horse wasnt in the race. His last fig was pace aided, but he also had license to run that well. Worked down to a good fig end of 3yo year, fig progression as a 4 yo suggests he is properly developing/improving. The knock on him is that he comes from behind so likely to have trouble or squander effort. Also, he hasnt won yet in unrestricted company. All of his wins were against 3yos only. All of this is why I am feeling comfortable to hit the all button in this race, but also nervous the the Super might not be as rich as it could be. If Synchrony and him definitely need to hit the super...it could still pay something, but there are a lot of horses and there needs to be some price horses to make it pay.
American Guruis this horse a trap? looks amazing at 30-1. Never tried stakes company, but raced against G1 grass miler Voodoo Song giving him 4 pounds and only lost by a nose (but for that this horse would be 5 wins for 6 tries). Only real loss was first race back from a long layoff and easy to forgive. Second race back is weak from the figure perspective but it was an easy wire job. If this horse gets back to his form under Jerkens, he is right there. Third back from the layoff a charm? Hoping he lights up the tote board -- the 64k question to be answered is whether he is the same horse as last year or not -- but you get rewarded to find out.
Made Your Look ouchy horse -- only had a three effort campaign as a 4yo and trying his third effort as a 5yo. Not inclined to think this is a good set up for a new top. Figs are good enough for him to be close, but looking elsewhere.
Emmausdid not take to first lasix last out. 30years ago, second time lasix was a massively rewarding angle. Lasix doesnt always take first time out. this horse's 3yo and 4yo figs without lasix are excellent. Second time lasix and he could improve right into the picture here.
Admiralty Pierthank god for the all button. This is one figure horse. That buried figure at Tampa is obviously dangerous and this does look like a place he could fire. However, that fig is not supported by the rest of this guy's sheet and it could easily end up being an isolated figure.
Summary -- loving the all button for the first leg of the pick 4. Got Stormy has the obvious issues discussed. Raging Bull as second choice, while very strong, hasnt beaten older horses yet in his career and this is a tough spot to start. Synchrony always fires, but doesnt "go to 11" so somebody else could beat him. American Guru at 30-1 is the obvious light up the tote board candidate -- but Silent Poet and Emmaus also have license. Really want to play the super here, but hard because it is hard to see Raging Bull and Synchrony out. Maybe try something with those two plus the longs mentioned here.
Good luck all.