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Re: Swan Song? (269 Views)
Posted by: banditbeau (IP Logged)
Date: November 05, 2019 09:55AM

Bit - is it possible that the probability is even higher than you suggest?
Using a calculator of Binomial and Cumulative probabilities, and the occurrence rate mentioned:

Probability of a single trial = .002
Number of trials = 200
Number of undesired events, x = 1
Binomial probability = P (X=x), = .268
Cumulative probability = P (X<x) = .670
Cumulative probability = P (X=<x) = .938
Cumulative probability = P (X>x) = .061
Cumulative probability = P (X>=x) = .329 or almost 33% chance of this event happening with the number of runners and the event rate of occurrence.

Is this possible?

BB



Subject Written By Posted
Swan Song? (600 Views) Caradoc 11/03/2019 01:42PM
Re: Swan Song? (449 Views) jma11473 11/03/2019 02:04PM
Re: Swan Song? (409 Views) Caradoc 11/03/2019 02:55PM
Re: Swan Song? (429 Views) bluechip21 11/03/2019 04:07PM
Re: Swan Song? (405 Views) Boscar Obarra 11/03/2019 04:42PM
Re: Swan Song? (385 Views) vired 11/03/2019 09:50PM
Re: Swan Song? (403 Views) Al Caught Up 11/03/2019 05:59PM
Re: Swan Song? (344 Views) jerry 11/04/2019 11:18AM
Re: Swan Song? (332 Views) Rich Curtis 11/04/2019 12:37PM
Re: Swan Song? (347 Views) BitPlayer 11/04/2019 01:25PM
Re: Swan Song? (300 Views) JimP 11/04/2019 05:34PM
Re: Swan Song? (311 Views) BitPlayer 11/04/2019 05:44PM
Re: Swan Song? (269 Views) banditbeau 11/05/2019 09:55AM
Re: Swan Song? (234 Views) Marlin 11/05/2019 06:03PM
Re: Swan Song? (235 Views) BitPlayer 11/05/2019 07:27PM
Re: Swan Song? (209 Views) BitPlayer 11/05/2019 07:13PM


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