Am I nuts here or is Mathcapper going to chime in here.

If the chances are 0.20 % then THAT probability remains constant NO matter how many horses (volume) . Probability does not change based on volume, BUT incident count can change, not incident RATE.

For example, flip a coin 1,000 times & it is still 50% probability of Heads.

200 Horses @ 0.20% probability is 0.40 horse incidents; less than ONE horse. NOT 18%