Re: Swan Song? (786 Views)
Posted by: Marlin (IP Logged)
Date: November 05, 2019 06:03PM
Am I nuts here or is Mathcapper going to chime in here.
If the chances are 0.20 % then THAT probability remains constant NO matter how many horses (volume) . Probability does not change based on volume, BUT incident count can change, not incident RATE.
For example, flip a coin 1,000 times & it is still 50% probability of Heads.
200 Horses @ 0.20% probability is 0.40 horse incidents; less than ONE horse. NOT 18%
If the chances are 0.20 % then THAT probability remains constant NO matter how many horses (volume) . Probability does not change based on volume, BUT incident count can change, not incident RATE.
For example, flip a coin 1,000 times & it is still 50% probability of Heads.
200 Horses @ 0.20% probability is 0.40 horse incidents; less than ONE horse. NOT 18%
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