I would think that almost everyone handicapping the Derby in a serious manner would have to decide what they will do with Fierceness, the likely favorite in the Kentucky Derby if he makes it into the gate. I went back and watched his replays and many have said when he faces adversity, he throws in the towel. I'm not sure I agree with that necessarily as in both his losses, he put himself into a position to win after less than ideal issues but after that threw in the towel. Is it possible that in both of his losses, he wasn't ready for the stretch out? Or wasn't ready off the bench for his best effort? I'll leave it to you if so inclined to assess his trips in helping with your decision.

His TG pattern will certainly be one to assess once the field is known and the data is released that week esp after post positions and how it will stack up against others along with the Derby patterns some of you have fine tuned.

On the trainer front, I did a little bit of research into some of Pletcher's stats with Derby horses. I'll share what I found meaningful here. I'll let you decide if it helps you decide USE or TOSS once Derby Day arrives.
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Todd Pletcher has won the Florida Derby 8 times including with Fierceness this year. I went down this path b/c many have stated that his horses run better in Florida than elsewhere. Here are his prior winners and how they fared in the Kentucky Derby.

Scat Daddy, 1 1/4L winner of Fla Derby. 18th.
Constitution, Neck winner of Fla Derby. Did Not Start. Hairline Fracture in April and Off Derby Trail.
Materiality, 1 1/2L winner of Fla Derby. 6th.
Always Dreaming, 5L winner of Fla Derby. WON.
Audibile, 5 1/2L winner of Fla Derby. 3rd.
Known Agenda, 2 3/4L winner of Fla Derby. 8th.
Forte, 1L winner of Fla Derby. Scratched Morning of or before Derby.
Fierceness, 13 1/2L winner of Fla Derby. Kentucky Derby Finish TBD.

5-1-0-1. Can anyone go back and look at these 5 from a TG standpoint?

Todd's overall Derby record has been well covered through the years. He is/was known as a guy that can get them to the race but couldn't win it. He has won twice in the slop with Super Saver and Always Dreaming. Based on people saying his horses weren't prime contenders to account for his losses, I took a look at his horses that were under 10.00-1 since and including 2001 to see how this looked. I didn't use 2000 when he had horses that were part of the "field" that went less than 10-1. He has only had the favorite one time and Always Dreaming did win that year. These are his horses that started as individual entries at under 10.00-1, their Derby finish, and how they fared thereafter in racing. I looked at their post Derby record to see if the idea that he can get them to the Derby is true but that there isn't much lemon left to squeeze thereafter.

Balto Star, 8.30-1. 14th. 8 for 29 thereafter with 1 dirt stakes win.
Bandini, 6.80-1. 19th. 2 for 3 as a 4yo but no more starts at age 3.
Scat Daddy, 7.20-1. 18th. No more starts.
Dunkirk, 5.20-1. 11th. 0 for 1.
Super Saver, 8.00-1. 1st. 0 for 3.
Gemologist, 8.60-1. 16th. 0 for 1.
Revolutionary, 6.40-1. 3rd. 2 for 6 with 1 stakes win, Pim Sp at age 4.
Verrazano, 8.70-1. 14th. 2 for 8 with those 2 stakes wins at Mth as 3yo incl Haskell. Transferred to AOB for Turf tries as part of those 8 post Derby races.
Danza, 8.70-1. 3rd. No more starts.
Carpe Diem, 7.70-1. 10th. No more starts.
Always Dreaming, 4.70-1. 1st. 0 for 5.
Audible, 7.00-1. 3rd. 1 for 4. Win was an ungraded stakes.
Known Agenda, 9.90-1. 8th. 0 for 1.
Tapit Trice, 4.53-1. 7th. 0 for 3.

14-2-0-3 with horses UNDER 10.00-1. And the post Derby record if you eliminate those first two from his very early days, it is 5 for 32. A few of those starts were for AOB with Verrazano. And some of these horses became stallions. But the strongest contenders for the Derby don't show a lot of success post-Derby which makes a case for how hard he has to push them to just get to the Derby. And maybe by that point they are up against it to run the biggest race of their life in a large field at a distance of a mile and a quarter.

Notable Scratches. Todd has had some strong contenders for the Derby that didn't even start in the race. That included Constitution cited above. Also, on the list and all three were likely to be favored I think is a fair comment:

Eskendreya, Never started again.
Uncle Mo, 1 for 3 thereafter in 2nd half of his 3yo year.
Forte, 3rd in Bel, 1st in Jim Dandy, 4th in the Travers.

Is this the trainer you want for your Key Horse in the Derby for the favorite? Will his Derby record affect the Derby odds and the horse will be a higher price than some are thinking now? Is 5 starts lightly raced enough to have one more monster effort? I'll let you decide those questions although this is only a tiny component as handicapping the actual race with PP's is certainly a large part of decisions of what to do with the horse.

As always, no warranties on this work but it is very, very close if not 1000% accurate (maybe a typo in here).

I'd say Derby season is upon us!!