If you guys want to get down to the bottom line, there have been 3 Derbies run without LASIX.

Only 2 horses have come into the race in those 3 runnings with a Negative number on their sheet. Taiba, -.5 and Essential Quality who had a -.5 at OP before running 0 in Kee in his final prep.

Taiba ran a 10 3/4 in the Derby with Yakteen at the helm. Essential Quality ran a -.5 when he crossed the wire in 4th.

Is Fierceness going to run a Neg number next Saturday? If so, he likely wins. If not, he could still win but it is "wide open" as they say. It will be really interesting to see what the Host says in his seminar this year. I've already made my stance known that I don't believe TAP will get him to the winner's circle. But on paper, he "towers" over the field much like Dreaming of Julia did in the 2013 Oaks.
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The Top 4 finishers of the last 3 Derby's (all Lasix-free)

2021: 1.5 Medina Spirit, 1.25 Mandaloun, .5 Hot Rod Charlie, -.5 Essential Quality

2022: 1.5 Rich Strike, 2.25 Epicenter, 3.25 Zandon, 2.5 Simplification

2023: 0 Mage, 1.5 Two Phil's, 2 Angel of Empire, 3.5 Disarm