Thanks for the research. If you assume it will take about a 1 to win, there are only 3 horses that have run fast enough so far. Given Todd’s history and just the overall history of horses with negative numbers coming in, it’s very likely Fierceness bounces. He can bounce a little and still win but that’s tough to take on a favorite.

Sierra Leone is another who could bounce. A couple other things concern me about him: Chad giving him more time between the FG race and Blue grass than he gets coming into this one doesn’t make sense. He’s used that path in the past with Zandon who ran well but still off his top. Similar pattern with Highly Motivated too. Sierra also seems to be a bit green with his gate antics and drifting down the stretch, that may be amplified on derby day. Finally, I can’t see Tyler being patient enough to get a ground saving trip. Not that any jock wants to get a horse stopped but especially not the second choice in the derby. He will have to lose a lot of ground at some point so even if he runs a pair it probably isn’t good enough because of this.

Forever Young is the third that’s run fast enough. If he had improved at all this year I’d love him but as is he could go either way. He’d be trying to do something that many before him have tried, none successfully, in running well out of Dubai which is hard to trust.

It’s hard for me to get too excited about any of these 3 so I’m very interested to see what the seminar thinks of who might jump forward. Resilience, Honor Marie and Catching Freedom seem interesting.