An interesting and informative post regarding TAP's historical stats for his Derby starters. I also agree that this race goes through Fierceness, as to whether you toss him or key him. He has clearly shown that on his best day that he can run a TG number that would easily trounce his competition.

However, I believe that his success our failure will be determined in the opening quarter mile of the Derby. If he gets away from the gate cleanly and lands in a forward position with no outside pressure, I believe that he will run his race which should get him the win. But, if he has a troubled start (ie. bumped, steadied and lands in a tight spot early, he has demonstrated that he will get rank and not settle which will take him totally out of his game.

After watching the tape of his defeats, he was away from the gate poorly, had early trouble in both instances before he landed in bad spots and was no factor. I have no doubt that after the Holy Bull, he spent many extra mornings getting gate schooled, which led to a much cleaner break in the Fl Derby.

Additionally, his post position draw will be critical to his establishment of an early forward position , as if draws inside with speed to his outside, he could easily get cooked early or buried behind his rivals.

In the end, it will be a fascinating race to handicap and bet.

Good Luck