I appreciate your statistics and the effort that went into compiling them. My view of Fierceness in the derby is focused on what are his weaknesses, not his well-known strengths.

Remember that Thorobred Horse trainers are generally blue-collar practical-minded people. Meaning their success revolves around having an advantage. Picking spots where their entry has an advantage. A good horse against a weak field. Using Jockeys who excel at getting the right position, avoiding ground loss and otherwise exploiting the weaknesses of competitors.

Some cross the line in their zeal for advantages. OK point made! Simply put Fierceness' Achilles heal is not controlling a race from the front. Remembering a few years back Baffert had the best older horse in the country. Game on Dude won a string of stakes races by going to the lead (saving ground) throttling down and holding off late runners.

Then as several astute trainers realized Game On Dude couldn't pass horses in races. So they threw rabbits at him and it worked so well Baffert complained about how unfair it was and in short order retired Game On Dude.

Two Trainers have the ability to send capable rabbits out in the Kentucky Derby. Both Chad Brown and Brad Cox. IMO, are well advised to send their speed horse to the front ahead of Fierceness.

The result and my play is the Closers from Brown & Cox along with the Run All Day Japanese bred colt who has proven able to chase a pacesetter and grind him down.

Of Course Jockey Johnny Velasquez may be too smart to be suckered and Fierceness more flexible than I imagine.