Morning

I wonder if the horse knows all those stats?

My initial thought after the BCC was this horse was squeezed to much to early with a - TG #.
Then he ran thru the wind in the FL derby and his # got even lower!
Initial thought I can’t wait to bet against him!
From a pure TG angle he is the fastest horse and IF the Fl derby # is good his history screams bounce.
Pletcher in the past has used the F.O.Y to FL derby angle.
This year he went Holy Bull, FL derby angle.
I was at Gulfstream Holy Bull day I went to the paddock to observe the goods and even my wife said, he looks dull. His performance reflected his appearance.

Fast forward to FL derby, this is not the same horse I saw Holy Bull day, he ran to his looks. Again after his FL derby I was of the opinion I can’t wait to bet against him..

As time passed watching workouts etc it really seems as this horse might just be flourishing.
Another point made every other horse in the race has to move forward to beat him, even if he pairs or runs an off.
Pletcher after a horse runs a new top runs a X 22% of the time and at CD runs an X 27% of the time.
The Pace:I do see a fast pace, I just don’t see Johnny V getting sucked into a pace duel.. Break, relax get into your 46 1/2 mile rhythm. I say horse will be sitting 4th on the outside going into the first turn.

I agree with HandRide the top 3 choices all have chinks in the armor.

If you toss Fierceness it’s a wide open race numbers wise..

I’m still on the fence but have a strong lean towards Fierceness.

Enjoy the conversation.
Good Luck

PS. Post 17 post has never won the derby. If your into that..