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Re: Speed is Speed, or is it? (737 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: July 11, 2005 02:09PM
SC,
I watched yesterday's major races at Calder. I'm working on them. I don't know if the track changed speed, but on the assumption that it did not, I'll express a few initial thoughts until I examine the races more carefully.
1. IMO, it is not just the fractions that mattered (though I believe they mattered). It's also whether or not horses were pressured and how severely. Plus, not all quarters are the same even when the quarter mile times are the same. For example there is a difference between 11 + 11 and 10.3 + 11.2.
2. In theory a horse like Lost in the Fog could have run the exact same fractions he did in his race while off the pace against the stronger older colt field, but that's generally not what happens. What usually happens is that the horse runs close to its typical style and the jockey tries to remain in position to win without knowing what the exact pace is and how it will impact his horse. So the horse gets drawn into the faster pace to keep his position and not have to do something crazy to win later.
At first glance I would say it seems pretty obvious to me that LITF's race is not as good as it looks relative to the older colt race based on the time differential. LITF got loose and controlled his race against competition that didn't even have enough ability to challenge him, let alone pressure him or cause him to run too fast early. Those were pretty easy conditions. It seemed fairly likely before the race that he might run a new top against that field. The older colt race was loaded with high quality speed that battled and pressed each other pretty much the whole way and put up what appears to be fast fractions relative to the final time.
It's a nice concept to think you can make perfect pace figures and apply them to the speed figures with a perfect formula that applies to all horses under all conditions that then produces a new number that tells you everything. I don't think that exists. IMO, tHere are only approximations. I'll go through the process of making the numbers to get an idea of how extreme each pace was and then form a general opinion about the horse's performances.
I think these are perfect examples of the differences in the "quality" of performances that go beyond speed figures.
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/11/2005 06:33PM by classhandicapper.
Speed is Speed, or is it? (1152 Views)
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