Re: Speed is Speed, or is it? (559 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: July 12, 2005 05:34PM
jimbo,
I have done a pre race pace analysis many times, but I do tend to only bet on big stakes (results are better). however, many of my plays have absolutely nothing to do with pace. It's only relevant when it's relevant. I can't make it relevant if it's not. It's one tool in an arsenal.
The obvious post race conclusion about LITF for example is that he earned a Beyer of 114 and a TG of "whatever". If he races in a field with horses that are earning figures like that coming off legitimate trips I'll happily bet against him. He's not a 114 horse right now. He's a 114 horse when he gets loose against garbage cans in a moderate pace. That's worth knowing whether it leads to a bet or not.
Whatever Beyer the two duelers in the Smile ran, they are better than that. If they are spotted in a field where the pace will be more average, I will evaluate them as if they can run faster than they did in the Smile. If that leads to a bet so be it, if not I am still better off knowing what really happened.
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