Re: Speed is Speed, or is it? (533 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: July 13, 2005 12:57PM
BD,
I took a quick look at the BC Sprint stats. It's possible I missed a horse here or there, but it looks like there were 4 winners from a total of 25 layoff starters.
Precisionist - 8.80
Very Subtle - 34.80
Desert Stomer - 31.00
Lite De Justice - 10.00
They were obviously highly profitable given the two longshot winners. The sample is kind of small considering the longshots.
Among the losers were many terrible longshots that weren't expected to do much and a few decent contenders that ran poorly.
I can't think of any reason obvious reason the BC sprint would produce better layoff results than the typical Grade 1 sprint because there are very few Grade 1 sprints and horses are usually totally geared up for them.
I don't remember the figures going back that far, but I think it's possible to conclude the Precisionist would fall into the category of being solidly better than his field and only paid as high as 8.80 because of questions about distance and form just prior.
I know Very Subtle had a monster race in the Test, but beyond that I can't remember exactly where she fit.
I remember not liking the other 2 very much for reasons other than the layoff.
In any event, it was eye opening to see the results. Thanks for pointing them out. I still think LITF would be better off resting now and having a prep before the BC or with a race between Saratoga and the BC.
I can appreciate the goal of having a fresh horse, but I think more than 2 months is too long coming into a field of Grade 1 monsters. If a horse needs that much time to recover, there might be something wrong or being 97% may get him beat at a short price.
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