Re: Speed is Speed, or is it? (504 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: July 13, 2005 04:34PM
jim p,
I did a study on layoffs by class level in NY using a database that had several years of races. I forget the exact years, but it was late 80s and maybe just into the 90s. At the Grade 1 level, horses off more than 2 month layoffs were underperformers on a ROI basis. The few that really laid over their fields did fine. Those that figured as contenders or were marginally best often ran well without winning and underperformed most from a ROI betting perspective. Since that time I've played against many horses in Grade 1 events when they were coming off a layoff and were bet as if it wasn't a factor - in other words a short price. I'm pretty sure I made good money on those bets. I can only remember a few that beat me. Birdstone was one last year.
I never bothered to study the BC races separately because I didn't think there would be anything to be learned from a small sub-sample of that kind. I was kind of surprised that the BC sprint had 4 winners off a layoff. I probably didn't notice because I didn't like any of the horses to begin with for other reasons. I tend to notice things when I dislike a specific horse for a specific reason and he wins anyway.
Personally, I'm not going to put too much weight on a stat of 25 horses that contained two $30+ winners, but I guess it's worth watching.
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