Re: ROTW (432 Views)
Posted by:
beyerguy (IP Logged)
Date: July 18, 2005 08:41AM
This is the tough thing when making figures...did the horse run a monster, or was the figure wrong in the first place? It seems too convenient to say when a horse runs back to the number that it was right, but on the other hand saying if horses don't run back to those numbers the big fig ruined the horse.
I think most of the figures like this are when horses run into highly favorable conditions that they aren't lucky enough to see again. If High Limit sets a leisurely pace without pressure with Vicarage being the next best horse in the race, he'll probably run a 1 again. This type of figure happens every day at all levels of racing, which is why it can pay to have additional info to supplement figures.
>
> The whole idea that you can use later races to
> confirm or disprove the accuracy of earlier
> numbers is a little shaky...there's not always a
> direct relationship... If you look through the
> archives or the red board room, you will find LOTS
> of horses that run ONE amazing race and never get
> back to it...
>
> HP
>
>
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