Re: ROTW (432 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: July 18, 2005 08:45AM
I think you guys are arguing past each other.
It wasn't the speed of the LA Derby that was ever an issue for anyone. It was the quality of the performance that was an issue. Most handicappers slowly started understanding that as horses failed out of that race.
High Limit made a clear early lead on the rail in a moderate pace on the same track that produced many wire to wire/close up winners. That includes Badge of Silver dueling in insane fractions and still going on to record his usual speed figure at a distance that's at his outer limit under normal circumstances and Summerly who hasn't recorded a figure that high since then despite being a developing 3YO. (there were others)
I argued immediately after the LA Derby that the race was suspect because of its non-competitive development and generally weak field.
The "1" is legit. However, a "1" earned under optimal conditions is not equal to a "1" earned under typical or rough conditions. No horse even made a move in that race. Even HL's figures at 2 were earned under favorable conditions.
The debatable "1" is the Blue Grass because there was a wide range of opinions about how fast that race really was. We never got a lot of evidence out of it because Bandini got hurt in the Derby, Consolidator got hurt in the race, and Closing Argument was generally considered to be a short horse going into that race that improved in the Derby. High Limit and SK (until yseterday) have been floundering since.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/18/2005 09:04AM by classhandicapper.
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