"Storm Flag Flying-- Which is more likely:
1- That a 2 year old filly that has never run that fast before would run that incredible a figure, or
2- one that has already run that fast would run back to it."

I really, genuinely, don't understand where you're coming from with this type of perspective, and I just don't understand why anyone trying to decide between different sets of Sheets would buy into this sort of logic.

1. Your initial post was "who was right...who was wrong". These imply absolutes. Now you're saying "more likely"... That's a different animal...

2. Moreover, I'm highly skeptical of short 2-yr-old lines as a source for proving anything, especially the 2-yr-old lines of horses who are bred to do unusual things.

Let's assume (a guess) Ragozin has her BC number a 4.

So then her Rag line is
6, 12, 7, 4

You guys have it
7, 1.5, 4, 1.5

Isn't a ~1 a number that a 2-yr-old is incredibly *unlikely* to run back to? Since you've been making figures, I suspect you've never seen a 2-yr-old filly go 1-4-1, right?

A Ragozin 6 is an extremely fast debut number for a Summer 2-yr-old, especially from Shug, who doesn't usually wind them up all that hard.

A reaction of some sort could be expected in her next race. It certainly wouldn't be surprising. Rag has it a pretty big reaction, to a 12. Too big? Perhaps, but the filly was so far clear of a miserable field in her second start, she was notably green and goofy in the stretch... And the filly who won the Miss Grillo won it with a slow number, right? And had a *horrific* trip in the Matron-- surely that doesn't prove anything, does it?

Then, in a more professional effort in the Frizette, the Rags say SFF runs back towards her top in the third start. Finally, bred to love two turns, she breaks through and runs a new top at AP...

Look, I'm *not* saying the Ragozin version is correct. I'm *not* saying that they didn't have her second start as too slow.

I am saying that using the number *you* came up with for her performance at AP as some sort of proof that Ragozin blew it on the 15th, well, it leaves me uncomfortable, and I can't imagine that it does anything other than preach to the converted.

A savvy Sheets player I know (a purchaser of both products, depending on what track he is playing) told me that he thought that Ragozin clearly had some performances on 9/15 too slow and Tgraph had them too fast.

Perhaps this is the case, perhaps not.

But when you're talking about the wealth of unusual circumstances surrounding SFF (her breeding, the quality of the Matron field, the shortness of her line, etc.), I think it's the last place you should start to prove anything.

I'm just stuck with this thought in my head. Every Ragozin player I know thought SFF was the most likely winner in the race, with Composure the only filly with a chance to beat her. I don't think they looked all that different on Tgraph... The exacta paid $12.80. Zzzzzzz...






If the answer to that question is 1, we should all stop using figures. I would also point out that as it happens, the filly who won the Miss Grillo Sunday at Aqu was out of the 9/15 race.

Meanwhile, what ever happened to that joint venture you were talking about?

TGJB