Re: B.C. Review (953 Views)
Posted by:
Marc At (IP Logged)
Date: October 30, 2002 04:57PM
"In regard to your overall position: the 2 year old fillies who can run that fast are probably 1 in 10,000. Here's what we'll do-- next time a horse runs really fast, I'll take that one to run back to the number, and you take another horse who hasn't run that fast to do so, and we'll bet. As much as you want."
I guess I'm missing your point here. I think it's far more likely for a 2-yr-old to run a Thorograph 1 and change only once, but you think it's more likely for them to run it twice in a 6 week span?
"Marc, try this-- the number in question was the filly's second. Take the sheet and cover up the last two numbers, and ask yourself what you think she would have gone on to do. Then do it with ours."
Maybe I'm just a bad Sheets reader. But when a 2-yr-old filly runs a 6 and a 12, my thought would be:
Next number should tell us a lot.
When she runs a 7 then a 1.5, my thought would be: 1 more big effort at most, probably a ~2 point regression, then the smart play is to expect a big bounce.