Re: B.C. Review (845 Views)
Posted by:
Marc At (IP Logged)
Date: October 30, 2002 06:23PM
"You didn't miss the point, you intentionally misstated my position"
No, this is untrue. I don't do stuff like that.
"What I said was that a horse who has already run super fast is more likely to run that number again than ANOTHER horse who has never run that fast. And if you really don't believe that, you have the opportunity to take a lot of money from me."
The specifics of this situation, I guess we do disagree on them then. Because I would think that it's more likely for one 2-yr-old filly to run that number once at age 2 who has never run it (but who has a healthy line that hints that she could do something like this), as opposed to a 2-yr-old filly running that number twice within 6 weeks (and you bet with skepticism that she could do it twice within 6 weeks, too, apparently). In other words, Composure made more sense to me than Storm Flag Flying.
"After the first two races, here is what you know, on Ragozin: she backed up 6 points off a 6, so that 6 was probably a big effort for her, and she is not likely to better that in the short run (the next 2 starts came at 3 week intervals)."
The 12 was a big question mark. The track was terribly strange that day, and it was tough to know how much that would play into an off number... Plus she was less than focused in the stretch, or so it seemed... It was a *classic* wait and see kind of number. The third number would tell us a lot... We know some horses run off numbers on off tracks, yes?
"Here's what you know on TG: she's a freak. The first out 7 took nothing out of her, and she has proved she is capable of running a 1 1/2."
Interesting take, but from what I've seen, 1.5s are so rare among 2-yr-olds (especially summer/fall) that it makes more sense to play them as the type of numbers that would be damaging to a horse, period.
You've seen many more two-yr-old lines than me, for sure. Unless I'm still misunderstanding you, I guess you are saying that it's more common to see 2-yr-old fillies run back to numbers in the 1 range than it is to see those who have lines like Composure's run them once and that's it...
To me, it seems like if you looked at every 2-yr-old filly who had ever run in the 1 range, you'd find many more that did it once than twice...
I don't want to seem like I'm avoiding your bet-- the single most likely scenario is clearly for a 2-yr-old filly to never run a number that fast.
I would think the second most likely scenario is that she would run it once, but that's it.
The third most likely scenario is that she would run it twice in 6 weeks...
Or so I think...